Deutsche Bank is considering three security indicators to identify the safest countries for tourists this summer. Going on holiday during COVID-19 remains a huge challenge, as noted in its latest report on tourism. As a matter of fact, most will prefer shorter and shorter trips, with a greater preference for nearby destinations.
However, for those who are thinking to travel abroad, Deutsche Bank has ranked the top summer destination options. Considering the official recommendations of the EU, the strict government measures, the number of cases and deaths, as well as the “opening” of economies, the German bank recommends tourists to visit Cyprus, Portugal and Spain.

Stringency Index

Deutsche Bank uses a strictness index to assess the security of destination countries. Hence, this is based on an evaluation of seven indicators: 1) School closures, 2) Closing of workplaces, 3) Cancellation of public events, 4) Closure of public transport, 5) Campaign to inform the public, 6) Restrictions on domestic traffic and 7) International travel controls.

Shock indicator

A second indicator for Deutsche Bank is the number of daily confirmed cases. Based on this indicator, Cyprus, Portugal and Spain are the top destinations. In these countries, as shown in the table, almost zero new cases have been recorded over a period of seven days. Greece is quite far from the top (score 1.51 against 0 in Cyprus, Portugal and Spain), due to the recording of new cases daily after the “opening” of the economy.

Index of recorded deaths per day

A third indicator is the number of deaths recorded by COVID-19 per day. Based on this index, Cyprus, Portugal and Spain are the top destinations with a 0 score, as no deaths have been recorded in 7 days. Greece is quite high in this index and in second place. Its score is 0.01 (along with Australia). Based on the index of recorded deaths, our country is considered a safe destination.

Overall, Deutsche Bank recommends Europe as a safe travel destination for 2020, since the majority of EU countries have scored high in its safety indicators.

Over the last two weeks, we notice a slight pick up on new reservations for late July and August. In addition, cancellations seem to be slowing down, especially for reservations by EU travellers. Last but not least, hotel rates at the moment are settling at lower levels than in 2019, and most hotels have embraced very flexible policies.